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| User Info | The 2009 Consumer Crash Call is UNDERSTATED in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Royal Flush! 
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archi....
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-08-23 16:22:05
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Maple Posts: 4091 Incept: 2007-09-03 
Southern California
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typo alert: three credit cards to before I've never even seen a WalMart. Where have I been? 2008-08-23 16:37:21
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Gates Posts: 1886 Incept: 2008-01-29
Scottsdale
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Trying to get my friends and family to understand - not accept- UNDERSTAND what you just wrote about has been an absolute excercise in futility. People are in for the shock of a lifetime when they finally get it- very very sad Karl.
---------- "Ein Ende mitt Schreck ist besser als ein Schreck ohne Ende." - Hans-Wilhelm Voeller Last modified:
2008-08-23 16:47:42 by gates
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Oldboat Posts: 23 Incept: 2007-11-25 livermore, ca Online
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excellent. truly right on the money. i see this in the people i work with every day. i owe nothing. they owe on their two new cars. their two new houses. yes two, one main house in town, and the second little getaway cottage. they used to tell me what a fool i was for not buying during the run up. down to the last one, they are all upside down now (we are in california). their bragging has stopped.
2008-08-23 16:45:43
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Nightowl Posts: 2187 Incept: 2007-06-26
R U an American or an American't?
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You're on fire Gen. Four tickers in 24 hrs?! The bottom callers are gonna have a hard time swallowing this pill. So back to the baseball game analogy...where do you think we are at? 3rd inning?
---------- “There comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular but he must do it because conscience tells him it is right.”-MLK 2008-08-23 17:07:48
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Zerosum Posts: 3565 Incept: 2007-11-11
Yes. It's a train.
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More and more I'm becoming convinced that short SHLD is going to be THE great play of the next year. This sure doesn't do anything to change my mind about that. 
---------- “That morning of the day I got sick? I'd been thinking: it's good to be in a thing from the ground floor. I came too late for that, I know. But lately I've been getting the feeling I might be in at the end. That the best is over." Tony Soprano 2008-08-23 17:09:29
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Openwater747 Posts: 1179 Incept: 2007-08-22
Panglossian Paradise
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What inning? Well, Japan is going on 18 years of House Price deflation, so how about bottom of the 1st? 2008-08-23 17:32:57
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Patentleathershoes Posts: 7132 Incept: 2007-09-13
Looking forward to PB&J time!
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Bravo!!!! My Dad called tonight. I have 4000 dollars I invest for them. It's is their speculative account. They could put more in there but this is what they feel comfortable kissing goodbye. He said, "I want you to put this in one of the ultrashorts, we are about to hit the wall in the market." I told him we would have to wait a week or maybe a little less but if that's what he wanted me to do I would. I'm putting a buck-fifty stop on it. My Dad is a GREAT Dad and a brilliant electrical engineer. He manages to understand stuff on a dime where it takes me forever to work things out. He's always right. I'm going to send him tonight's ticker. I'm fairly certain he reads them anyway but just in case. Last modified:
2008-08-23 19:41:40 by novasold
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1000ohms Posts: 7384 Incept: 2007-09-06 
aka inflam Banned
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OldBoat - Four sweetest words in the English Language - I told you so 
---------- I make somewhat of a sport out of costing people their merchant accounts doing this. I recognize that small tickets are a problem but the solution isn't do violate the rules you voluntarily agreed to when you got your merchant account. - Genesis 2008-08-23 19:58:41
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Patentleathershoes Posts: 7132 Incept: 2007-09-13
Looking forward to PB&J time!
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The real tell for me was when I saw people with two, not one, but two 500 dollar car payments, who made about half as much as I do alone. Bad juju. 2008-08-23 20:18:50
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Opusprime Posts: 857 Incept: 2007-07-27
Andronov-Hopf bifurcation
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Great observation Gen. Just to add my own tidbit, I'm in a similar situation to you debt wise. I had a long hard chat with colleague from work last night who is in his late 40's, married with 4 young children. He got caught up in the greed of the housing market and got a loan to build a house far and above his ability to pay, and this is someone who makes alot of money (above $200k a year combined income). He is currently paying over $100k a year in interest only mortgage payments, and cannot afford to take his children to see a matinee movie. They are maxed out on credit cards and auto loans. The stress is literally killing him, and now his job is in jeopardy. Its all going to come crashing down. I told him to start making payments every other month, and if the bank bitches, to just walk. I think it finally sunk in. ---------- To those that give the thieves the keys to their home... - RATM 2008-08-23 20:21:33
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Hilzenrath Posts: 4 Incept: 2008-02-24 Palm Beach Gardens Florida
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Gen, does this mean it time to short Walmart? or maybe something like the XLP- Consumer staples index, which everyone sees as the "defensive" play? Looks like it is mostly made up of Walmart and Proctor & Gamble. Eventually I think Walmart turns into a grocery store- like Costco is.. not the business they want to be in,, and as for P&G, wont people eventually stop paying $19 dollars for Tide and just try the store brand? Just a thought. LH 2008-08-23 20:44:15
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Stemmit Posts: 1768 Incept: 2007-09-07
Dixie Hell
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Gen's ticker is clear, like a bell
---------- The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and goodwill shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will execute great v 2008-08-23 20:47:32
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Garyk Posts: 377 Incept: 2008-08-13
Oklahoma
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Nova, What is a "buck-fifty stop?" thanks ---------- 2008-08-23 21:22:38
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Peace Posts: 688 Incept: 2007-07-09
San Diego
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Gen, it's not just the buyers in the last 5 years who are underwater, it's the people who cash-out refinanced. The cash out refis are a much bigger problem, and were multiple times the number of buyers. I wish I know the ratio of cash-out refi/buyers, but I remember reading at one point, 88% of GSE loans were refis where the new loan was larger than the old loan. 2008-08-24 01:14:58
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Pensicostreet Posts: 677 Incept: 2007-06-26
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Cash out refi is huge... personally know 4 people in my own sphere that have done this and are probably going to lose their houses. Its really unfathomable as these people not only refied to get rid of the credit card debt, they reran the cards up in debt to the tune of over $40,000. All in the space of a couple of years. What were these people thinking?...that the house would double again? Even if it did, they would do the same thing.
2008-08-24 01:22:19
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Cardz Posts: 697 Incept: 2008-02-25
San Diego, CA
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Right now I feel very fortunate to be one of those families that has zero debt and sitting on the money from the sale of our house 2.5 years ago. A year ago I was second guessing myself that the game looked to be able to last forever. Now after talking about this scenario for years I only have a few friends that are in the same boat as me. It truely makes me sick to see family and friends losing their homes or waiting for the debt to overtake them. I can't stress Karl's point enough not to get trapped in your debt as things get worse. I see that this is setting people up to be a slave to their debt. It is now harder to declare bankruptcy and they are trying to get you to sign away your non recourse loan with a recourse loan as Karl mentioned. Thank God for sites like the Ticker Forum and insiteful comments from people like Karl. I know for a fact that without this site I would have been ok but would not have made the effort to educate family and friends or started emailing my elected officials. ---------- "That's 00 buckshot to the nuts, Bernanke, delivered by Sir Bond Markets-a-lot." ~ Genesis 5/7/09 "Somebody better find that ****ing unicorn, stat!" ~ Sundevilgrad 5/11/09 2008-08-24 02:25:03
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Eternalblue Posts: 3879 Incept: 2007-08-09
sokali
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when you refi, the mortgage is no longer no recourse?
---------- all pullbacks are bear traps 2008-08-24 02:47:35
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Eternalblue Posts: 3879 Incept: 2007-08-09
sokali
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oh to expand on the debt distribution, those with the most debt are also probably those that consume the most (relative to income). Those with the least debt, probably consume little. ---------- all pullbacks are bear traps 2008-08-24 02:50:01
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Cardz Posts: 697 Incept: 2008-02-25
San Diego, CA
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And I would expect that most people that have had loans for over 3 yrs have refied. It is the recent bag holders that will be looking to make a deal. ---------- "That's 00 buckshot to the nuts, Bernanke, delivered by Sir Bond Markets-a-lot." ~ Genesis 5/7/09 "Somebody better find that ****ing unicorn, stat!" ~ Sundevilgrad 5/11/09 2008-08-24 02:50:07
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Bob.builder10 Posts: 90 Incept: 2007-07-26
UK
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From the New York Times article "The result, he says happily, is a drop in his monthly housing bill to $1,200 from $3,400. Somewhere a lender is recording yet another foreclosure" This is the positive for the US economy from a consumer perspective. This persons disposable income has Jumped $2,200. The Non Recourse nature of the US housing market is great, in the UK mortgages are recourse, so our housing correction will take longer and will be more damaging to the economy. BTW the UK housing market topped out at between 7 and 9 times salary depending on which stats you use compared to 5 times in America. 2008-08-24 04:45:07
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Sandor Posts: 903 Incept: 2007-08-08
Deltaville,Virginia
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Great Ticker! I have been debt free for 6 years... and you will be surprised what you can buy for cash when not servicing debt. From an experienced builders point of view (mine), many of the new cracker box communities that sprang up over the last 5-7 years where built for maximum profit. I have toured many and construction quality is just not there, from material used to workmanship. Slam the front door and the whole 5000 sq/ft house shakes. Although I favor owning over renting, I would never advocate buying a home in a disposable community no matter what the price. Buy a piece of land for 25 cents on the dollar and contract it yourself. 2008-08-24 06:54:32
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Widgeon Posts: 5671 Incept: 2007-08-30
OK
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Checkmate. I "think" I observed the consumer crash into the wall on Memorial Day Weekend '08. Prior to that, they had touched-the-brakes and had attempted a couple evasive maneuvers ... but, they hit the wall that weekend and MANY economic reports are showing a tremendous slowdown initiating right about that time. I agree too that the inability to HELOC has been, finally, the last piece of the story that needed to fall into place. I for one could never understand what people were thinking w/ those ... 2008-08-24 09:08:31
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Guydaley Posts: 10361 Incept: 2007-07-10
Missouri & Wyoming
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There is no telling where we would be right now without that ignorant spending stimulus bill. But its ALL DESIGNED to postpone the greater harm until after the election. The election is like our pilgramage. We're all good consumers on that long trail of spending that leads to the election mount where we get to elect our next corporate bought leader. Oh joy!! And as we trudge up the long winding trail, our candidates are throwing entitlement candies at us which we scurry to collect before we resume our grinding toil. ---------- 2/17/09 = Hogzilla bill was signed = THE POINT OF NO RETURN = Cheers to the Reset, LONG LIVE THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY! STARVE the BEAST! Adopt a J6P. 2008-08-24 09:23:26
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Swingtrader Posts: 5544 Incept: 2007-08-12
United Oligarchic Goldman Sachs States of America
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Inflam wrote..OldBoat - Four sweetest words in the English Language - I told you so Classiest Act? to not say them! ---------- Vegasradar wrote.."Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end." 2008-08-24 09:30:13
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